7 Things I Think I Know 9 Games Into the 2009-2010 NBA Season

We’re exactly 10.976% into the 2009-2010 NBA regular season, and I’m celebrating by making some predictions which, appropriately, each have about a 10.976% chance of coming to fruition.

Which is slightly higher than Sarah Palin’s approval rating. Boom!

1. Celts, Suns Rule the NBA...For Now.

Let’s review where we’re at, shall we?

The Boston Celtics and the Phoenix Suns stand atop the Eastern and Western Conference, respectively, with 8 wins and only 1 loss (as of 11:00pm today...Phoenix and LA are playing as I type). The New Jersey Nets (0-8) are the Least in the East, and Minnesota and Memphis have pretty much picked up where they left off last year at the bottom of the West, each mustering only 1 win in 9 games.


My boy Stevie Nash is benefiting from a return to the uptempo, Greatest-Show-On-Hardwood style now that the Shaqtus is out of town, dishing out more dimes than a cheap Shreveport casino. (One of the best headlines I’ve ever seen on The Onion, from back in 2008: “Steve Nash Sarcastically Asks Shaq to Slow Down”.) Chris Paul is mad at his 3-6 Hornets, and he’s taking it out on the 3-point stripe, making nearly two-thirds of his three point attempts, and Kevin Martin is second in the league in scoring (30.6 ppg!) for the forgotten Sacramento Kings (who are a surprising 4-4, by the way).

And the biggest surprise in my opinion: LeBron James is nowhere to be found in the top 5 of any major statistical category (points, rebounds, assists, steals). BUT his Cavs are 6-3.

Now that you’re all caught up, how about some of those aforementioned bold predictions...

2. LeBron James will not be a New York Knick next year.

If you have watched even three minutes of ESPN in the last six months, you have heard about the free agent class of 2010, when so many big names will be available for signage. Naturally, the richest markets would get the best shot at the best prospects, so it only makes sense that the biggest name in the game would land in the biggest market in professional sports, right?

It makes sense in lots of ways. But do you really think he can win in Madison Square Garden? The Knicks are so far away from being good, it just can’t be that appealing to LBJ. At least not as appealing as some of the other choices out there, including just staying put in Cleveland.

Marc Stein wrote on this topic last weekend, and suggested that landing in Miami with Dwyane Wade could happen. But of course, the name that caught my attention was, you guessed it, my Dallas Mavericks. Stein makes a compelling case: Dirk Nowitzki is probably the best big man LeBron could be paired up with, he’s good friends with J-Kidd, Dallas is at least moderately glamorous and would welcome him in a fraction of a second, and Erick Dampier’s contract would be palatable to the Cavs’ payroll. Plus, he has lots of love for the Cowboys, allegedly even more so than he does for his Yankees.

It’s a long, long, long shot (longer than LeBron’s half-court underhand toss), but one can dream, right?

Now that LeBron has slapped the proverbial duct tape over his mouth for the rest of the season, we’ll just have to wait 9 months and see. In the meantime, we could, I don’t know, WATCH SOME BASKETBALL??


3. Jason Kidd will climb a few more rungs on the statistical ladder before season’s end.

It’s well-established that Kidd is one of the greatest point guards to ever play the game of basketball. Aside from that elusive NBA championship, he’s as accomplished as you can be.

Before season’s end, barring injury, he’s likely to pass Scottie Pippen and Mo Cheeks on the all-time steals list (he already passed Clyde Drexler a few games ago), probably ending up in the neighborhood of 2,350 steals at number 4. (By the way, did you know that Hakeem Olajuwon, A CENTER, is eighth on that list, way ahead of names like Allen Iverson and Isiah Thomas?) He’s also only 66 assists from passing Mark Jackson (10,334 assists) for second on the all-time assists list.

He’s a good one. And those lobs to Shawn Marion and Erick Dampier are looking better each game.


4. John Stockton stole from the rich and gave to the, well, rich.

All this talk about career statistics and all-time lists reminds me...

A few weeks after Johnny was elected into the Basketball Hall of Fame this summer (overshadowed by Michael Jordan’s enormous ego), I’m reminded again just how great he was. The stats prove it: he’s at the top of the all-time list for assists and steals. Way at the top.

Check it: 3,265 steals vs. His Airness at number 2, with 2,514 (that’s almost 30% better). 15,806 assists vs. the aforementioned Mark Jackson, who had 10,334, a whopping 53% better.

Pretty amazing stuff. Not like today...damn kids with their single-digit assist games and their long shorts and their loud music...

5. Andre Iguodala is channeling his inner Julius Erving.

Appropriate, since he’s a Philly kid himself.



6. The Oklahoma City Thunder Will Make The Playoffs.

There’s bold prediction number two.

I have no real evidence for this. But they’re right on the lip of the cup in the West, and I like Kevin Durant, because he’s really skinny, and so am I.

But who knows, maybe they catch lightning in a bottle, like Golden State did in 2006-2007? It’s not all THAT far-fetched. They could finish ahead of Houston, Utah, and New Orleans if everything falls right. If even two of those teams don’t make it to the playoffs, OKC could squeeze in there.

7. The Dallas Mavericks Are Frustratingly Inconsistent.

The potential is SO there. They’ve got a killer line-up in Dirk, Shawn Marion, Josh Howard, Jason Terry, and Jason Kidd. Erick Dampier is playing his best basketball. Dirk is playing at a similar level to his MVP year (Did you see him score 29 points IN ONE QUARTER last week?). Terry is passing and defending better than he ever has in a Mavs uniform. And I love the under-the-radar additions of Kris Humphries and Dallas native Quinton Ross.

Then there’s the bad: they’ve gotten off to sluggish starts offensively in almost every game, and they’re forced to make late comebacks just to get a chance to win. Shawn Marion can’t buy a lay-up (and he’s still got that ugly, ugly shooting style). Drew Gooden looks lost and jacks up a 17-foot leaner every time he touches the ball. (I’d rather have Marcin Gortat right about now...).

But they’re atop the Southwest Division at 5-3 (for now). They’re responsible for the Lakers’ only loss, which they did at Staples Center, in Jack Nicholson’s face. There’s a lot to like, if they’d just get out of their own way. Kind of like the Cowboys.

It comes down to one thing: if you’re really a contender, you’ve got swagger. And the Dallas Mavericks don’t have swagger. They haven’t earned the right.

Yet.